Is a Worldwide Economic Crisis Looming?

CNA-News from November 6, 2001:

Fear prevails – of new terrorist strikes, of expansion of the war in Afghanistan and more and more of a global economic crisis. The downtrend started already months ago: Since the beginning of the year 360,000 people have lost their jobs in the computer and telecommunications industries in Great Britain. Large Japanese high-tech firms are writing their mid-year balances in red and want to strike 80,000 jobs. And since September 11 the airline industry is caving in: Boeing is letting 30,000 workers go, American Airlines, 20,000.

And in Germany, too, the situation is dramatically coming to a head. Last week the six leading economic research institutes in the country made their fall prognosis: The country is on the “edge of a recession.” The Chancellor contradicts this. The former head of the Federal Reserve Bank, Karl Otto Pöhl, once Secretary of State under Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and architect of the European economic alliances, speaks more clearly: “We are not at the edge of a recession, we are already in the midst of one.” There is no doubt: Unemployment is rising again and income from taxes is sinking dramatically. The most recent poll by the German Chamber of Commerce is also spreading gloom: In contrast to the government, the business sector is not counting on an upswing soon. Business activity was paralyzed already before September 11. And it was further dampened by the terrorist strikes. For the year 2002 economic specialists are reckoning with a growth of 0.5% at the most, and 4 million unemployed. And one also hears that Siemens is planning to let 17,600 people go. Are these symptoms of a general decline?<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Nothing is more certain than the uncertainty over what the future will bring. The magazine Spiegel asks: Are we experiencing the beginning of a third world war? Is this only a long-lasting engagement with Islamic fanatics or has the worst already been surmounted in a few weeks? Are we receiving the first signals of a worldwide economic crisis with millions of unemployed and a noticeable impoverishment, also in the industrial countries? Or will the world economy recover again after a few shaky months? Could the uncertainty spread into a worldwide hysteria?

No one dares to make a prognosis anymore. Some look back at similar situations. For instance, the beginning of the Korean War in the early 1950s. It triggered an economic boom because the USA increased their spending for armaments tremendously. The boom affected European countries, especially Germany, whose exports of machines tripled during the 1950s. And how was it during the Gulf War? Rising oil prices, high interest rates and diminishing trust on the part of the consumers led to a recession in America. Germany withstood much through the effects of reunification.

But the situation at the beginning of the Golf war was harmless in comparison with the present world conflict. Today it is not a war against one country, but a fight with an invisible enemy, who can strike at any time and everywhere and has led to a complete uncertainty that is constantly rising. The economy, according to Ludwig Erhard, the father of the German economic miracle, consists 50% of psychology. Today this means that half of what happens in the economy is determined by fear. Fear reigns in the conferences of high officials of international conglomerates; fear overcomes entire armies of workers on assembly lines and computers – fear for their jobs, fear of the future.

Never has this civilization been so shaken by fear as it is today. What does this want to tell us? One can no longer depend on this world. Then on what or on whom? On God? Many are also accusing Him. Why does He not help us in the misery of terrorism and war? Because He gave us the freedom to keep His commandments or to ignore them. If we do the later, then according to the law of cause and effect, we will have to bear the consequences. God does not punish us, but we punish ourselves. This holds true for world politics as well as for the everyday life of each individual. At the same time, there is a chance in this: The one who no longer counts on the world, instead make himself aware that he is a child of God and lives accordingly, will step by step find security, which will gradually lessen the undertow of fear.

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